How to Predict Crime

How to Predict Crime

 

Attend a presentation by world renowned criminologist Dr. Leslie W. Kennedy. Click here for time and location.

“The Department of Sociology at MacEwan University and the Edmonton Police Service are pleased to co-sponsor a presentation by Dr. Leslie W. Kennedy from the Rutgers School of Criminal Justice and the Rutgers Center on Public Security.

One approach to crime analysis suggests that the best way to predict future crime is to use past behavior, such as actual incidents or collections of incidents, as indicators of future behavior. An alternative approach is to consider the environment in which crimes are occurring and identify features of the landscape that would be conducive to crime.

This presentation will explore the information products that each method offers for the purposes of risk-based violent crime forecasting and police resource allocation. Violent crime incidents occurring in New Jersey in 2007 and 2008 are used to assess the joint analytical capabilities of point pattern analysis, hotspot mapping, near repeat analysis, and risk terrain modeling.

Findings help to answer questions about where, when and why violent crimes occur in a jurisdiction and will explore how crime analysts can use event dependent and environmental analysis techniques as complementary instruments.”